THE CLOCK · PART 3
Who gets there from here
How much of a deep playoff run is luck, and what the teams that made one actually did.
2026-27 · Regular season
Wolves to a T
Data science in pursuit of Minnesota's first NBA title.
Independent long-form analysis of the Timberwolves by a working data scientist. New work goes up when the findings warrant it, not on a schedule.
2026-27 · Regular season
Wolves right now
Where the team stands
Data through Oct 26
Record
3-1
6th in West6th in West
1 games back1 games back
Last game
L 125-127
@ CLE · Oct 26@ CLEOct 26
Next game
vs GSW
Tonight, 7:00 PM CTTonight, 7:00 PM CT
KARE 11/DAZN-MIN
Recent form
3-1
Last 4Last 4
Net +23.0 · L1 streakNet +23.0L1 streak
Wolves right now
Where the team stands
Data through Oct 26
Record
3-1
6th in West6th in West
1 games back1 games back
Last game
L 125-127
@ CLE · Oct 26@ CLEOct 26
Next game
vs LAC
Fri, Oct 30 · 7:00 PM CTFri, Oct 307:00 PM CT
KARE 11/DAZN-MIN
Tonight vs GSW · score by morningTonight vs GSWScore by morning
Recent form
3-1
Last 4Last 4
Net +23.0 · L1 streakNet +23.0L1 streak
Wolves right now
Where the team stands
Data through Oct 26
Record
3-1
6th in West6th in West
1 games back1 games back
Last game
L 125-127
@ CLE · Oct 26@ CLEOct 26
Next game
vs LAC
Fri, Oct 30 · 7:00 PM CTFri, Oct 307:00 PM CT
KARE 11/DAZN-MIN
Tonight vs GSW · score by morningTonight vs GSWScore by morning
Recent form
3-1
Last 4Last 4
Net +23.0 · L1 streakNet +23.0L1 streak
Wolves right now
Where the team stands
Data through Oct 26
Record
3-1
6th in West6th in West
1 games back1 games back
Last game
L 125-127
@ CLE · Oct 26@ CLEOct 26
Next game
vs LAC
Tomorrow, 7:00 PM CTTomorrow, 7:00 PM CT
KARE 11/DAZN-MIN
Last night vs GSW · score by morningLast night vs GSWScore by morning
Recent form
3-1
Last 4Last 4
Net +23.0 · L1 streakNet +23.0L1 streak
Wolves right now
Where the team stands
Data through Oct 26
Record
3-1
6th in West6th in West
1 games back1 games back
Last game
L 125-127
@ CLE · Oct 26@ CLEOct 26
Next game
vs LAC
Tomorrow, 7:00 PM CTTomorrow, 7:00 PM CT
KARE 11/DAZN-MIN
Last night vs GSW · score pendingLast night vs GSWScore pending
Recent form
3-1
Last 4Last 4
Net +23.0 · L1 streakNet +23.0L1 streak
Wolves right now
Where the team stands
Data through Oct 26
Record
3-1
6th in West6th in West
1 games back1 games back
Last game
L 125-127
@ CLE · Oct 26@ CLEOct 26
Next game
vs LAC
Tonight, 7:00 PM CTTonight, 7:00 PM CT
KARE 11/DAZN-MIN
Oct 28 vs GSW · score pendingOct 28 vs GSWScore pending
Recent form
3-1
Last 4Last 4
Net +23.0 · L1 streakNet +23.0L1 streak
Recent analysis
Latest published work
See all 13
The Clock, Part 4: Why you should watch
Why the safe summer never existed, and what to watch by game 20.
The Clock, Part 2: What we found
Did the summer make them better or worse?
The Clock: methods for the series
The methods for the whole series: the four views, the two aging bases, the allocators and cells, the bands and labels, the corrections.
The Clock, Part 1: What Connelly did
Every dollar and pick of Minnesota's summer, walked forward from June 13 to the day Jonathan Kuminga chose less money to be here.
Pricing the LaMelo Trade, Part 3: The Bill
I finally priced what Minnesota owes Charlotte for LaMelo Ball. Charlotte collects almost twice the title equity the Wolves give up, and the only reason the bill looks survivable is that it comes due in the futures where this team has already fallen apart.
Pricing the LaMelo Trade, Part 2: Fifty Thousand Futures
We simulated both franchises to 2033, fifty thousand times, under a lottery that no longer works the way you remember. The pick Minnesota sent out lands in the lottery 61.9 percent of the time, and the machine's failed tests are printed right next to its findings.
The discipline
The discipline behind the work
Three principles keep the analysis honest.
- 01Findings folder: every analysis carries its chronological notes.
- 02Bootstrap confidence intervals on every comparative claim.
- 03Audit trail of every published correction, in public.