2026-27 · Preseason
Data science in pursuit of Minnesota's first NBA title.
Independent long-form analysis of the Timberwolves by a working data scientist. New work goes up when the findings warrant it, not on a schedule.
2026-27 · Preseason
THE CLOCK · PART 3
How much of a deep playoff run is luck, and what the teams that made one actually did.
Wolves right now
Data through Oct 16
Opening night
3 days
Wed, Oct 21 · 6:30 PM CTWed, Oct 216:30 PM CT
@ MIA · ESPN@ MIAESPN
Preseason
3-3
Exhibition
Preseason complete
Last game
L 116-133
@ CHI · Oct 16@ CHIOct 16
Preseason
Last season
49-33
Lost West semis 2-4 to SAS
2025-26 · 6th in West2025-266th in West
Wolves right now
Data through Oct 16
Opening night
2 days
Wed, Oct 21 · 6:30 PM CTWed, Oct 216:30 PM CT
@ MIA · ESPN@ MIAESPN
Preseason
3-3
Exhibition
Preseason complete
Last game
L 116-133
@ CHI · Oct 16@ CHIOct 16
Preseason
Last season
49-33
Lost West semis 2-4 to SAS
2025-26 · 6th in West2025-266th in West
Wolves right now
Data through Oct 16
Opening night
Tomorrow
Wed, Oct 21 · 6:30 PM CTWed, Oct 216:30 PM CT
@ MIA · ESPN@ MIAESPN
Preseason
3-3
Exhibition
Preseason complete
Last game
L 116-133
@ CHI · Oct 16@ CHIOct 16
Preseason
Last season
49-33
Lost West semis 2-4 to SAS
2025-26 · 6th in West2025-266th in West
Recent analysis
Did the summer make them better or worse?
The methods for the whole series: the four views, the two aging bases, the allocators and cells, the bands and labels, the corrections.
Every dollar and pick of Minnesota's summer, walked forward from June 13 to the day Jonathan Kuminga chose less money to be here.
I finally priced what Minnesota owes Charlotte for LaMelo Ball. Charlotte collects almost twice the title equity the Wolves give up, and the only reason the bill looks survivable is that it comes due in the futures where this team has already fallen apart.
We simulated both franchises to 2033, fifty thousand times, under a lottery that no longer works the way you remember. The pick Minnesota sent out lands in the lottery 61.9 percent of the time, and the machine's failed tests are printed right next to its findings.
Charlotte traded LaMelo for futures contracts on the Timberwolves, and the biggest variable in what they pay out is Anthony Edwards. We priced the question the way an actuary prices a life policy: 291 star tenures, one walk-year cliff, and an answer close to a coin flip.
The discipline
Three principles keep the analysis honest.
